Operations Management Whitepapers & Workbooks CD

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Operations Management Whitepapers & Workbooks CD     
Clamshell Beach Press introduces the new 2009 edition of the Operations Management Whitepapers & Workbooks CD. This CD contains a rich collection of whitepapers and Excel Workbooks that address critical operations management issues. The CD contains 58 whitepapers and 40 Excel workbooks that cover a wide variety of topics and concepts related to the field of Operations Management. Compared to the 2007 edition, this CD includes 24 new whitepapers and 11 new Excel workbooks. Nearly all of the whitepapers and workbooks have been revised since the 2007 edition. Topics include forecasting and planning, inventory management and purchasing, lean, location models, lotsizing, new product development, operations research, operations strategy, personal operations management, price optimization, process improvement, project management, quality and statistics, service operations, supply chain games, and theory of constraints.

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  Forecasting and planning
Title Type Description
Aggregate production planning problem.pdf Whitepaper This short paper develops the classical mathematical programming formulation for the aggregate production planning problem.
Bass model.xls Workbook This Excel workbook implements the Bass model for product diffusion in order to predict the sales of a new product. The workbook provides an extensive explanation for how the model works and finds the optimal (least squares) fit given a few points on the product life cycle.
Forecast error economics.pdf Whitepaper This paper develops a series of simple economic models for estimating the cost of a poor forecasting system. The paper considers the cost of the carrying inventory due to higher than needed safety stock and/or forecast bias and also the lost gross margin from customers due to inadequate safety stock. Through a series of models and discussions, the paper proposes a methodology for auditing and improving a forecasting system. The audit list in the last section should be a good tool for any firm desiring to audit its forecasting system. This paper is closely related to the paper entitled Forecast Error Metrics.
Forecast error metrics.pdf Whitepaper This longer paper defines and compares a wide number of different statistical approaches for measuring forecast error. The paper includes many of the newest measures including the Mean Absolute Scaled Error. The paper ends with several practical recommendations for metrics. This paper provides a very comprehensive treatment of this subject.
Forecasting lifetime demand.pdf Whitepaper A paper that explains how to use a geometric series to forecast the lifetime demand. The companion Excel workbook “LIDS.xls” implements this model.
Forecasting with exponential smoothing.pdf Whitepaper A paper that explains the Winters’ model for forecasting with exponential smoothing including equations for forecasting, demand filters, and tracking signals.
Forecasting with exponential smoothing.xls Workbook This Excel workbook implements the Winters’ model for forecasting with exponential smoothing. This model finds the least squares fit for the alpha and beta parameters for the Winters’ model. It also helps estimate the seasonal factors using a centered moving average approach. The model allows users to modify the parameters and view the statistical and graphical results. See the companion paper “Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing.”
Forecasting with the theta model.pdf Whitepaper The winner in the last M competition was a new forecasting method called the Theta Model developed by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos. The basic concept of the Theta Model is that it makes forecasts that are the average of a long-term forecast and a short-term forecast. This paper makes the model easy to understand and implement. The paper also offers some extensions of the model.
LIDA.xls Workbook This Excel workbook forecasts the remaining lifetime demand using both a finite and an infinite geometric series model. Regression is used to estimate the parameters. Extensive graphs support the analysis. The companion paper entitled “Forecasting Lifetime Demand” explains the models implemented in this Excel workbook. The name “LIDA” stands for “Lifetime Inventory Demand Analysis.”
Seasonal factors.xls Workbook This Excel workbook simultaneously finds the best estimates of the intercept and slope for a trend line and the seasonal factors for user-provided demand data.
 
Inventory management and purchasing
Title Type Description
ABC classification analysis.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a mathematical model for ABC classification analysis.
ABC classification analysis.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that implements numerical methods in VBA to find the optimal alpha parameter to fit a distribution-by-value curve to empirical data.
Aggregate inventory analysis.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that finds the optimal lotsizes for a set of inventory items and compares the current inventory to optimal cycle inventory for each item and also for the aggregate inventory.
DuPont.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that implements the DuPont model to show the sensitivity of Return on Net Assets (RONA) to changes in inventory investment.
Estimating carrying cost.pdf Whitepaper This paper provides a detailed explanation for how to estimate the carrying charge and carrying cost parameters for lotsizing purposes.
Estimating ordering and setup costs.pdf Whitepaper This paper provides a detailed explanation for how to estimate order cost and setup cost for lotsizing purposes.
How to reduce setup time and cost.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents a number of practical ideas for how to reduce setup time and setup cost. The paper also discusses the benefits of reducing setup time and cost.
Inventory management.pdf Whitepaper This longer paper presents a complete discussion of both basic and advanced concepts for inventory management. The main section of the paper presents models for the economic order quantity and safety stock. The appendices explore a number of more advanced concepts.
Inventory turnover.pdf Whitepaper A paper that discusses how to estimate inventory turnover and some common errors in using inventory turnover as a performance measure.
Managing slow-moving inventory.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a model of managing slow-moving inventory. This model requires both the carrying cost and shortage cost parameters. This is a companion paper to the Excel workbook Slowmove.xls.
Multiple item resource constrained lotsizing.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents four different resource-constrained lotsizing models. Solution methodologies are also presented for each model. The paper emphasizes the user of Lagrangian multipliers to solve these types of problems.
Order cycle service level tutorial.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that exposes the folly of using an order cycle service level and argues for using the unit fill rate service level.
Safety stock.xls Workbook This worksheet provides a complete tool for determining safety stocks and order quantities for independent demand inventory systems using both the fill rate and the shortage cost methods. Using the two methods to complement one another is a powerful idea. One method can be used to validate the results of the other method -- and the user can iterate to find a pair of consistent values. The worksheet finds the optimal safety stock for both continuous and periodic review systems and calculates the reorder point for continuous review and the target inventory for periodic review systems.
Safety stock with serially correlated demand.pdf Whitepaper A paper that develops a mathematical model for estimating the proper safety stock when the demand values (or forecast errors) are serially correlated (autocorrelated).
Seasonal buying.pdf Whitepaper A paper that discusses how the newsvendor problem can be applied to handle seasonal buying for a retailer.
Service level metrics.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a number of ways that manufacturers, distributors, and retailers can measure their service levels. This paper provides a discussion of customer satisfaction and loyalty metrics as well.
Slowmove.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that finds the optimal target inventory level for slow moving items assuming Poisson distributed demand – and a one-for-one ordering policy. The user must specify both the shortage cost and the carrying cost parameters. See the companion paper entitled “Managing Slow-Moving Inventory.”
Sole single multiple source of supply.pdf Whitepaper This paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of sole source, single source, and multiple source suppliers and develops a contingency model for helping managers decide which strategy is most appropriate for a particular purchased item.
Supplier scorecards.pdf Whitepaper This paper explains the many benefits of using a supplier scorecard. The paper provides useful and practical information on how to setup and use a supplier scorecard system.
To stock or not to stock that is the question.pdf Whitepaper A paper that addresses the important question, “should this item be stocked or not?” by developing a simple mathematical model.
Vendor managed inventory.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents both the pros and cons of using vendor managed inventory.
Lean
Title Type Description
A3 problem solving.pdf Whitepaper This paper reviews the standard Toyota Production System/lean methodology for creating a very short (2 page) project charter and project status reporting document. The paper describes the benefits of this important lean tool and provides examples and references.
Inventory is evil.pdf Whitepaper Some senior executives challenge lean manufacturing “orthodoxy” and argue that “the cost is capital is so low right now that it no longer makes sense to reduce inventories.” In response to this challenge, this paper identifies ten benefits of reducing inventory even when interest rates are low.
Smart pull system.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a periodic review/target inventory model called the smart pull system.
Smart pull system.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that can help firms set target inventories (and associated safety stocks) based on demand forecasts. This can be used as a tool to help implement a lean pull system. See the companion paper by the same name.
Location models
Title Type Description
AL.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that implements an advanced version of the numeric-analytic allocation location model for finding the optimal solution for a single facility and near-optimal solutions for multiple warehouses using an infinite set location approach. The workbook extends the traditional approach by implementing a great circle distance option with latitudes and longitudes.
Location theory.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a number of different location models for both the finite and discrete location models. Models include (1) the numeric-analytic model for the single facility infinite set location problem, (2) the Adaptive Allocation/Location model for the multiple facility infinite set location problem, (3) the Kepner-Tregoe Model for the finite set location problem, and (4) the gravity model for finite set competitive store location problem.
Gravity.xls Workbook An Excel workbook for the gravity model for competitive retail store location. This workbook helps locate a new retail facility given the demographics of the region and the location of competing retailers. The pull from of one retailer on one customer region is directly proportional to the size of the store and inversely proportional to the distance (or travel time) squared. See the companion paper entitled Location Theory.
Lotsizing
Title Type Description
Economic lot scheduling problem.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a model for the economic lot scheduling problem. This is the problem of determining the lotsizes for a machine that is running at high utilization and where the setup times and costs are significant.
ELSP.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that solves the economic lot scheduling problem. This workbook uses VBA to implement a Newton search to find the shadow price needed to satisfy the capacity constraint. See the companion workbook entitled “The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem.”
Lotsizing.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents lotsizing models for both constant (time-invariant) and time-varying demand. For time-varying demand, the paper presents fixed order quantity (e.g., EOQ), time supply (Lot-for-lot, Period Order Quantity), and dynamic lotsizing (LTC, PPQ, LUC, LPC, WW) methods. The paper also discusses practical issues such as the models available in SAP and the importance of recognizing practical considerations such as the minimum order quantity, sequence-dependent setups, and shared setups.
Lotsizing.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that implements several methods for lotsizing for time varying demand, including an efficient implementation of the Wagner-Whitin algorithm. See the companion paper entitled “Lotsizing Methods.”
Multiple item newsvendor problem.xls Workbook This Excel workbook finds the optimal solution to the multi-item newsvendor problem, where the quantities purchased is limited by a budget constraint.
EOQ.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that implements the EOQ model for teaching purposes. This Excel workbook can also be used to estimate the setup cost over carrying charge ratio from historical data. The papers Lotsizing Methods and Inventory Management consider many of the same issues.
Newsvendor.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that finds the optimal solution to the newsvendor problem assuming that demand is defined by the triangular distribution. The program allows the user to experiment with various order quantities and displays several different graphs to help evaluate the results. See the companion paper entitled “The Newsvendor Problem.”
Newsvendor problem.pdf Whitepaper A paper that explains the newsvendor problem in great depth. This paper describes a wide variety of problems that can be modeled with the newsvendor model, including finding the optimal quantity for buying seasonal products, for making a last buy, for setting the trunk stock level, for overbooking a flight, for setting a safety stock, etc. The paper develops both the discrete and continuous versions of the model and provides examples of both. This is a companion paper to the newsvendor.xls workbook.
New product development
Title Type Description
Check digit.xls Workbook The last digit of many account numbers, identification numbers, and part numbers. The check digit is a useful for determining if the number is valid. This Excel workbook implements a popular check digit algorithm to verify that an account number such as a credit card number is clearly invalid. This procedure will work on nearly all credit card numbers.
Commonality.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a practical argument for increasing commonality and also a mathematical model for evaluating the benefits of increasing commonality.
Commonality.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that estimates the savings from replacing two similar components with a single robust (universal) component.
Operations research
Title Type Description
Empirical probability distributions with theoretical tails.xls Workbook This Excel workbook presents examples of how to use the VBA code for generating values from (1) a continuous empirical distribution with the right tail replaced with a theoretical exponential distribution and (2) a discrete empirical distribution with the right tail replaced with a theoretical Poisson distribution. This is a support workbook for the paper with the same name.
Netsolver.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that implements a minimum cost flow network optimization algorithm using VBA code. This can be used to solve assignment, transportation, transshipment, and many other network optimization problems.
Newton's method.pdf Whitepaper A short paper that explains how to use Newton’s Method to solve univariate unconstrained optimization problems.
Operations strategy
Title Type Description
How to create a mission statement.pdf Whitepaper Explains how to create a mission and vision statements with several examples.
Process is everything.pdf Whitepaper A paper that makes the argument that all human activities involve processes and that process management is at the heart of business strategy. The main thesis of this paper is that the process point of view is critical to success with strategic formulation and execution, organizational change and improvement, product development and marketing, and financial discipline.
Strategy maps and causal maps.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents practical approaches for creating strategy maps and causal maps. The paper presents many suggestions for improving the standard Kaplan and Norton strategy map approach. A number of examples are presented, including a time-based competition example.
Personal operations management
Title Type Description
POM.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents a practical synthesis of principles that can help knowledge workers increase their productivity while reducing their stress. This paper provides practical suggestions for dealing with 12 common personal operations problems: purpose, priorities, margins, boundaries, task list, e-mail, interruptions and distractions, complexity, paper, meetings, procrastination, and life-balance. Each of these problems is defined below. Drawing on the collected wisdom of many popular writers and scholars, the paper teaches how to apply practical principles such as margins, boundaries, tyranny of the urgent, getting things done, and lean. The appendix has a “Personal Operations Management” aptitude test that the reader can use to help measure how well they are doing on their “personal operations management.”
POM.xls Workbook An excel workbook that provides a practical approach for storing, sorting, and managing a personal task list. This work includes easy-to-use buttons that allows users to organize tasks in very practical and helpful ways.
Pay it forward series.pdf Whitepaper This paper develops a simple mathematical model for the “pay it forward” series. The paper then answers the questions “How many total people are involved after n levels?” and “How many levels will it take for the message to reach the entire world?” The main idea of the paper it to challenge the reader to make a positive difference in the world.
Price optimization
Title Type Description
Forecasting demand based on price and leadtime.pdf Whitepaper A paper that develops a mathematical model for estimating the elasticities for both price and leadtime that can be used to forecast the demand for a product with a change in price and/or leadtime. This paper develops the mathematical model for the companion Excel workbook.
Price optimization.xls Workbook This Excel workbook fits an exponential price-demand curve of the form D(p) = α∙exp(−β∙p) to two user-define points (p1, D1) and (p2, D2), where p is the price and D is the demand in units. The parameters α and β for the price-demand curve are estimated by solving two equations simultaneously. Calculus is then used to find the price that optimizes total profit, given the unit cost. The optimal price, optimal demand, and optimal revenue are also reported. The price-demand and the price-profit curves are then drawn.
Price-leadtime elasticity of demand.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that can be used to forecast the demand for a product with a change in price and/or leadtime based. The model estimates the elasticities for both price and leadtime based on historical data for one or more products. See the companion paper entitled “Forecasting Demand Based on Price and Leadtime.”
Process improvement
Title Type Description
Benchmarking.pdf Whitepaper A paper that provides a complete framework for understanding benchmarking, best practices, and leading practices and also how organizations can apply these principles to improve processes.
Brainstorming with the nominal group technique.pdf Whitepaper A short paper that explains how to conduct a brainstorming session with the nominal group technique.
Error proofing.pdf Whitepaper This paper provides a framework and examples for understanding and applying both prevention and detection methods to improve both product and process design. The paper includes a number of examples and photos.
FMEA.xls Workbook An Excel workbook “template” that supports a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA).
Learning models.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents both volume-based leaning (the learning curve) and time-based learning (the half-life curve). The paper also discusses Moore’s Law for time-based growth and the difficulty of estimating the parameters for these models. Extensive graphs are provided to illustrate the concepts.
Learning models.xls Workbook An Excel workbook for both the half-life and the learning curve. Finds the optimal learning parameters to minimize the sum of the squared errors. See the companion paper entitled “Learning Models.”
Overall equipment effectiveness.pdf Whitepaper This paper explains the Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) metric, which is considered by many to be a key tool for lean operations management. OEE and is used extensively in Total Productivity Management (TPM) applications, particularly in large firms that have large capital intensive operations (e.g., 3M). This paper provides information on calculating OEE and provides a template (form) that can be used for this calculation. The paper also explains how to identify and manage the six big losses related to OEE, how to implement OEE, and how to avoid the dangers of OEE.
Process improvement checklist.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents an organized list of over fifty fundamental process improvement ideas that have been collected from Lean Sigma blackbelts, lean experts, and other sources over many years. This list is a very helpful approach for stimulating and generating ideas for a process improvement team and should be a part of the training in every process improvement program.
Process improvement tools self-assessment survey.pdf Whitepaper This paper provides a comprehensive list of the skills that every lean sigma blackbelt (improvement expert) should have. The document is formatted so that people can score and evaluate themselves. This is a useful document for organizations to use to assess their level of maturity with respect to process improvement tools.
Project management hopper.xls Workbook This Excel workbook helps a team score project opportunities on the basis of (1) benefit and (2) effort, where both benefit and effort are multi-dimensional constructs. The workbook also creates a graph that can be used to help the team identify the best projects. This workbook was designed to support a lean sigma program, but can be used for any type project selection activity.
Project management
Title Type Description
Minto pyramid principle.pdf Whitepaper This paper overviews the Minto Pyramid Principle, which is a structured approach to building a persuasive argument and presentation developed by Barbara Minto, a former McKinsey consultant (Minto 1987). The Minto Pyramid Principle has become the de facto standard for all major consulting firms worldwide. Minto’s approach can improve almost any presentation and almost any form of persuasive speech.
Project charters.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a practical and detailed approach for creating a project charter. It also compares three other approaches (Lean, Lean Sigma, and PMI) for creating a project charter.
Project schedule template.xls Workbook This Excel workbook is an easy-to-use project scheduling tool that displays the start and end times for each task in a project. Large projects often require Microsoft Project or other dedicated project management software. However, most managers do not have easy access to Microsoft Project and do not have the time to learn how to use it. Most process improvement projects are small enough that they can be managed with this simple Excel-based scheduling tool.
Stakeholder analysis.pdf Whitepaper A paper that provides a detailed methodology that project teams can use to identify, engage, and communicate with key stakeholders in the course of managing a project.
Quality and statistics
Title Type Description
Audit sampling.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a hypergeometric probability distribution approach for audit sampling. The paper presents the methodology for setting up a stop and go sampling plan for an audit based on the hypergeometric distribution. This distribution is the most precise approach for auditing and results in the lowest recommended sample size. The companion Excel workbook “audit sampling.xls” implements the sampling model developed in this paper
Audit sampling.xls Workbook This is a sophisticated Excel workbook that implements a stop and go sampling plan for an audit based on the hypergeometric distribution. This distribution is the most precise approach for auditing and results in the lowest recommended sample size. Much of the VBA code needed for this process is included in the companion paper.
Confidence intervals.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that helps the user to determine required sample sizes to achieve user-specified confidence intervals for a variety of problem types and assumptions. See the companion paper entitled Estimating Confidence intervals and Required Sample Sizes.
Distributions.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that includes many important probability distributions including the uniform, normal, lognormal, exponential, Erlang, gamma, beta, Weibull, triangular, Poisson, binomial, and hypergeometric distributions, with statistics, Excel formulas, VBA code, tables, and graphs. An additional worksheet includes the partial expectation function and its inverse for the normal distribution. All of the graphs for probability distributions in the Encyclopedia of Operations Management are from this Excel workbook.
Dollar unit sampling.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a complete methodology for Dollar Unit Sampling (DUS). DUS is a powerful and useful method for sampling when you have a population with some importance measure such as the recorded amount available. Compared to random sampling, DUS provides greater representation of the larger recorded amounts in the sample and creates a more precise (tighter) confidence interval for the same sample size. It is also easier to use than other types of sampling methodologies such as stratified random sampling. DUS has become the standard approach for statistical auditing. This is a companion paper for the Excel workbook “dus.xls.”
DUS.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that computes the required sample size for a dollar unit sampling plan (DUS). The workbook implements Newton’s method to find the upper misstatement limit for a specified tail probability. See the companion paper entitled Dollar Unit Sampling.
Empirical probability distributions with theoretical tails.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents approaches for generating values from both continuous and discrete empirical probability distributions. This paper contends that adding a theoretical “tail” to an empirical distribution allows simulations to experience values beyond the historical tail values – and allows these simulations to explore important real-world “catastrophic” issues more carefully.
Estimating confidence intervals and required sample sizes.pdf Whitepaper A paper that provides a practical step-by-step explanation of how to estimate confidence intervals and the required sample sizes to achieve a user-specified confidence interval in a wide variety of situations.
Sigma level.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that determines the sigma level for a process given the number of defects per million opportunities and the shift in the mean.
Hypergeometric distribution.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents the hypergeometric distribution, an extremely important (but often neglected) discrete probability distribution found in a wide variety of contexts. The paper develops the mathematics for this distribution, along with several numerical examples. The paper also provides statistics for the hypergeometric distribution, an explanation of the one-tailed confidence interval and the sample, and the relationship between the hypergeometric and other probability distributions. The appendix explains how to implement the distribution in Excel or other computer program.
Service operations
Title Type Description
Queuing models.xls Workbook This Excel workbook includes four worksheets that provide four types of queuing analysis. The first worksheet allows the user to input a number of system input parameters and immediately see the steady state (long-term) results. The second worksheet shows the graphs for a range of servers. The third worksheet analyzes systems that have a target time in system and a target service level. The fourth and last worksheet provides an economic analysis of a queuing system that can be used when the user know the cost for the customer time in the system and the cost for the capacity.
Queuing theory.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents a clear and simple summary of queuing theory intended for the undergraduate business or MBA student. The paper presents the M/M/1 model, the M/M/s model, and PK formula, and the approximate G/G/s model. A number of graphs and examples are used to make the concepts as clear and as simple as possible. A description of the advantages and disadvantages of pooling is presented. Emphasis is placed on the intuition that can be derived from queuing models.
Service guarantee.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that presents a simple model that can help firms evaluate the benefits of a service guarantee on their total customer base. This is a good teaching tool to help people understand these benefits.
SPAT.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that implements an interactive network optimization for assigning students to project teams. This workbook implements a minimum cost network optimization model and is implemented in Excel using VBA. SPAT is an acronym for the Student Project Assignment Technique.
Staffit.xls Workbook An Excel workbook that implements an interactive approximate M/G/s queuing model with costing features to help firms determine appropriate staffing levels (staffing fit) for each period of the day.
Traveling salesperson problem.pdf Whitepaper A paper that presents a number of mathematical models for the traveling salesperson problem and discusses heuristic solution methods.
Yield management.pdf Whitepaper This paper defines yield management (also known as revenue management, perishable asset management, load management, and revenue enhancement) and explains practical ways that firms can use yield management concepts to maximize revenue and profits.
Supply chain games
Title Type Description
Donut shop.xls Workbook An excel workbook game for the newsvendor problem. The player(s) have to decide each simulated day on how many donuts to buy. If they buy too many, they lose money. If they buy too few they lose profit. The game has two game boards (worksheets) that have different cost parameters.
GatorDrink.xls Workbook An excel workbook game for inventory management. This game requires that the player decide how much to order and when to order. Both the demand the replenishment leadtimes are random. The game has several variants and gives the player some feedback from the “boss” each period.
Theory of constraints
Title Type Description
Drum-buffer-rope.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents Goldratt’s drum-buffer-rope concepts. This is one of the main concepts of the Theory of Constraints.
Theory of Constraints.pdf Whitepaper This paper overviews the theory of constraints proposed by Goldratt.
Throughput Accounting.pdf Whitepaper This paper presents Goldratt’s throughput accounting principles with an example.

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